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By Adam Hoge-

LAKE FOREST, Ill. — Aaron Rodgers is 10-2 against the Chicago Bears.

The NFL records might say he’s 9-3, but that doesn’t include the NFC Championship Game victory at Solider Field in 2010 (why would you not count that?) and it does include the Bears’ win at Lambeau Field last year when Rodgers suffered a broken clavicle and only played one series. It’s hard to put that loss on his official record. You can do it, but I won’t.

So with that record in mind — and Jay Cutler’s 1-8 record vs the Packers — I decided that under no circumstances would I pick the Bears to beat the Packers this year.

But here I am, picking the Bears to beat the Packers.

The reasoning is based more on what I’ve seen from Green Bay in three games than what I’ve seen from the Bears.

The Packers’ offensive line is brutal. It might even be worse than the Bears’ 2012 offensive line. No, really. They can’t get Eddie Lacy going on the ground and Rodgers has been running for his life. Losing Jared Allen Sunday would be a blow, but even without him, the Bears should be able to put pressure on Rodgers all game long.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, this should be the week where the Bears commit to the run a little more with some success. They played against three really good fronts the first three weeks of the season and it was smart to keep the ball in the air more. The Packers have the 30th-ranked rush defense through three weeks and Matt Forte should be able to find the end zone, finally.

Rodgers will certainly find some success in the middle of the field and the Packers will score some points, but there’s no reason to believe the Bears can’t score more. Remember, the Bears had last year’s Week 17 game won before a critical coverage error in the final minute gave the Packers the NFC North. The Bears’ defense is much improved since then and isn’t it fair to say the Packers’ offense has regressed?

My prediction: Bears 27, Packers 24.

Adam Hoge covers the Bears for 87.7 The Game and TheGameChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter at @AdamHoge.