By Adam Hoge-
NEW YORK — When the Bears’ 2014 schedule was released in April, I waffled between predicting a 10-6 and 9-7 record.
Monday night’s contest against the Jets was the game I couldn’t decide on.
Of course, predicting games in April is typically worthless. Rosters were expanded to 90 players back then and the NFL Draft hadn’t even occurred yet. That means three rookies — cornerback Kyle Fuller, defensive tackle Ego Ferguson and defensive tackle Will Sutton — weren’t even on the team yet.
And now, all three of those players will be asked to play big roles Monday night as they fill in for injured starters Charles Tillman (triceps; out for the year) and Jeremiah Ratliff (concussion).
Five months later, this is still a game I’m struggling with. My gut tells me the Jets will win, but I base my predictions off analyzing the matchups, and I can’t find a reason why the Bears won’t be able to score on this Jets team.
New York possesses a good defensive front, led by defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, but the Bears proved last week that they can move the ball without much of a running game. The run blocking has been less than sufficient thus far, but the pass protection has been solid, even with left guard Matt Slauson and center Roberto Garza out with ankle injuries.
The Jets have brought a max blitz 25 times through two weeks, according to Bears head coach Marc Trestman, but I would advise them not to do that against the Bears, especially with cornerback Dee Milliner (ankle/quad) doubtful to play. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are set up for big nights if the Jets choose to leave them one-on-one against this secondary.
The much smarter approach would be to sit back and make the Bears prove they can run the ball, which they’ve yet to really do through two games.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears’ defense is already banged up. Isaiah Frey goes from the practice squad back to his familiar role at nickel back, but he needs to be more productive on the ball than he was a year ago. Meanwhile, rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller slides into a much more significant role filling in for Tillman. Fuller had a great game last week, but he also got beat a couple times and he’ll need to be disciplined in his technique. Fortunately, this Jets’ receiver group is weak and Eric Decker (hamstring) will be limited or not play at all.
Thus, it comes down to stopping the run, which the Bears have shown they can do well enough through two weeks. But that was with Ratliff on the field and they will miss him Monday night. We’ll learn a lot about Ferguson and Sutton, as their play will go a long way in determining this game.
I’ve said for weeks now that the Bears’ special teams unit will cost them two wins this season, which is probably why my gut is telling me New York will win this one.
But the bottom-line is, I don’t think Jets’ offense is very good and the Bears should be able to outscore them.
My prediction: Bears 24, Jets 17