By Adam Hoge-
SAN JOSE, Calif. — One of the biggest storylines in the NFL Sunday will be the San Francisco 49ers opening up their brand new $1.27 billion stadium on Sunday Night Football.
There will be endless talk about how the Bears will face an incredibly tough atmosphere going on the road to the West Coast, facing a good team on a special night where the crowd will be even more rambunctious than normal.
And all the Bears will be thinking is: Thank God the game is not being played at Candlestick Park.
The Bears’ history at Candlestick was beyond forgettable. Their last victory there came in 1985. Since then, they lost eight games by an average score of 34-6.
34-6.
The Bears were completely shutout in three of those eight games and never scored more than 15 points.
Good riddance, Candlestick.
The brand new Levi’s Stadium will present a new, unique challenge for the Bears, but they are much more concerned about how they matchup against the 49ers.
On paper, San Francisco is the better team. They’re deeper across the board, even without Aldon Smith and NaVarro Bowman. But can the Bears go into Levi’s Stadium and spoil the party like they did in Indianapolis six years ago when Lucas Oil Stadium opened?
The Bears were credited with just five quarterback disruptions (sacks + knockdowns + hurries) against the Bills, according to STATS. Elsewhere around the league, six individual players had at least five disruptions. Texans defensive end J.J. Watt had 10.
Sure. It’s won’t be easy, but here’s the formula:
Stop the run
Statistics rarely tell the whole story and even though many don’t want to admit it, the Bears’ run defense was better than the 193 rushing yards it allowed against the Bills last week. The run fits were improved, the scheme was sound and the unit played well enough for the offense to win the game. The problem was a few big plays made possible by veterans — most notably linebacker Lance Briggs and safety Ryan Mundy — who the Bears expect not to make those mistakes.
Of course, that doesn’t mean the 49ers won’t run all over this defense. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde are just as talented of a tandem as Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller and it’s much harder to prepare for the 49ers’ running scheme. Behind one of the best and most versatile offensive lines in football, San Francisco will zone-block you, man-block you and trap-block you. The Bears will see pistol sets, power-O, zone-read and more. And it’s not like they can load up with an eight-man box every time because Colin Kaepernick can beat you with his arm too (the Bears learned this quickly two years ago when Kaepernick got his first NFL start and torched them on Monday Night Football).
Read More: Adam Hoge’s Bears-49ers Prediction
But given the concerns with the run defense, it would still make sense to load up against the run first and hope the secondary can matchup and win one-on-one battles in man coverage. One of the few areas where the Bears have the edge in this game is at cornerback where Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings and Kyle Fuller have the ability to matchup and shutdown Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson.
If the Bears can hold the 49ers under 4.5 yards per carry, the offense will have a chance to hang around.
Take care of the football
Did you know the Bears have won the turnover differential in just five of Marc Trestman’s 17 games as head coach? Not surprisingly, they are 5-0 in those games and 3-9 when they lose the turnover battle.
Those numbers are largely due to the defense’s sharp drop off in takeaways since the second half of last season, but last week the offense turned the ball over three times, which absolutely cannot happen Sunday if the Bears want to steal a win in Santa Clara.
Wide receiver Brandon Marshall said he wants to accumulate 400-500 yards after the catch this season, but if he’s going to do that, he can’t fumble the ball like he did against the Bills.
The all-time series between the Bears and 49ers is tied at 29-29-1.
And put quite simply: Jay Cutler has to make better decisions when plays break down. Outside of the two interceptions last week, he had a very good game, but the turnovers were killers and both came after the play broke down.
Get healthy
The guess here is that Brandon Marshall (ankle) and Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) give it a go. Fans might be doubting that after the Bears elevated Josh Bellamy and Chris Williams from the practice squad, but don’t forget that someone needed to be added after Josh Morgan (groin) suffered a setback Thursday and is now expected to miss Sunday’s game. Bellamy likely becomes Morgan’s replacement, while Williams provides insurance if either Marshall or Jeffery can’t go. Williams could also get worked into the return game if he is among the 46 players who are active for the game.
But most importantly, the Bears need Marshall and Jeffery to play. Without them, this offense is dramatically different and probably not good enough to keep up in this one.
Don’t screw up on special teams
It’s sad, but that’s pretty much the minimum expectation on special teams these days. The Bears’ lack a potent return game, so they just need to make sure they catch the ball and don’t commit any game-changing mistakes. Touchbacks are your friend.
The 49ers have a great special teams unit under coordinator Brad Seely and a significant edge over the Bears. If the game ends and you feel like you didn’t even notice Joe DeCamillis’ group, that’s probably a good thing.
It might be a lot to ask for, but if the Bears follow this formula — stop the run, don’t turn the ball over, get healthy and don’t screw up on special teams — they can leave the West Coast with a win.
Adam Hoge covers the Bears for 87.7 The Game and TheGameChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter at @AdamHoge.
